Here are my predictions for 2010:

The Emergence of the Alternative Messaging Platform

The emergence of a new messaging platform creates a period of dissonance in IT departments - should we upgrade or should we stay with the current platform?  I believe that while Microsoft Exchange 2010 will be quite successful, it will also motivate some Exchange 2003-enabled organizations to migrate to a new, non-Microsoft platform.  The problem is not with Exchange itself, but rather that Exchange 2003 is a relatively mature platform and organizations will want to migrate to a newer platform.  Most will migrate to Exchange 2010, but a sizable number will migrate to a non-Microsoft alternative, primarily because of cost-of-ownership considerations.

The Emergence of the Cloud Messaging Troika

While many talk about Microsoft and Google duking it out in the cloud messaging space, I believe that Cisco will an equal player in this slugfest.  Cisco will be a major player in the mid-market and enterprise for cloud-based messaging and unified communications, Google will be very strong in the small to mid-sized business market with some major enterprise wins, as well, and Microsoft will focus on the gamut from very small to very large.

Google Will Make Major Headway in the Mobile Business Market

Once the Google Android OS officially supports ActiveSync, Google's presence in the mobile business market will take off rapidly, rivaling Apple's success with the iPhone after the introduction of ActiveSync support.  I believe the majority of Google's share will come primarily at the expense of Microsoft which has been steadily losing share in the mobile market.

There Will Not Be a Major Cloud Data Breach

Many object to the use of cloud messaging, particularly for hosted email and hosted archiving, because they fear a major security breach that will expose their data to the outside world.  While there are sure to be occasional, minor breaches of data here and there, I predict that there will be no major breach or other defining event that delays organizations' migration to the cloud.

Archiving Will Reach 65% Penetration in North America

Email archiving is currently used by just under 50% of organizations in North America. However, tighter corporate governance rules and increased attention paid to e-discovery will make 2010 a watershed year for archiving vendors.  I believe that 2010 will end with roughly two-thirds of organizations having adopted some form of email archiving technology.

There Will Be Several Major Acquisitions

The most notable and newsworthy acquisition will be the acquisition of Twitter.  I have a short list of potential buyers for Twitter, but I'll keep that to myself for now.

OR Commentary for Messaging Wire

Week of 12/14/09